M. Damas/M. Erhard vs J. Jermar/D. Poljak
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The home pair represents a small-value underdog at 3.65 versus our conservative probability estimate of 30%, producing roughly +9.5% EV. We recommend the home side only because the market price exceeds our conservative fair value.
Highlights
- • Current odds 3.65 imply ~27.4%; we estimate 30.0% true chance
- • EV at current odds ≈ +9.5% (favourable value on the home side)
Pros
- + Clear positive EV at the quoted price using conservative assumptions
- + Doubles format and lower-level events increase upset likelihood, supporting underdog value
Cons
- - Very limited match-specific info (form, surface, injuries) increases model uncertainty
- - Small margin of edge — relies on conservative but subjective probability estimate
Details
We compare market-implied probabilities to a conservative estimated true probability. The market prices the home side at 3.65 (implied ~27.4%) and the away side at 1.25 (implied 80%). Given this is a doubles match at a lower-level event with limited available data, we conservatively estimate the home pair's true win probability at 30.0%. That implies a fair price of ~3.33. At the current available decimal odds of 3.65 the home side offers positive expected value (EV = 0.30 * 3.65 - 1 = 0.095, or +9.5% ROI). We therefore recommend backing the home team only because the market price is meaningfully higher than our conservative true-probability valuation; the heavy favorite at 1.25 requires an implausibly high 80% win probability to be fair and shows no value.
Key factors
- • Market-implied home probability (3.65) = ~27.4% while our conservative estimate = 30.0%
- • Doubles and lower-level events carry extra variance and upset potential relative to singles
- • No match-specific form, surface, or injury data available -> we apply conservative uplift to underdog