Highlights

• • Book implied probability ~88.5% vs our estimate 87%
• • Break-even decimal (~1.149) is higher than current 1.13

Pros

• + Market clearly identifies a heavy favourite which reduces surprise risk
• + If new information emerges (injury, withdrawal) opportunities can be re-evaluated

Cons

• - No independent data to support upgrading the favourite’s probability above market
• - Small margins in heavy favourites make betting profitable only on very small edges

Details

We have no external data for form, injuries, surface history, or head-to-head, so we adopt a conservative view. The book market prices the away pair at 1.13 (implied ~88.5% win probability). Given the lack of supporting information and the natural variance in doubles, we estimate the true win probability for the away team at 87%. At that probability the fair decimal required to break even is ~1.149, which is above the current 1.13 market price, producing a negative EV. Therefore we do not identify value and recommend no side.

Key factors

• • No external research available on form, injuries, or surface performance
• • Market implies very high probability for the away pair (1.13 decimal)
• • Our conservative estimated probability (0.87) yields a required decimal > current price