Highlights

• • Home 1.52 implies ~65.8% market probability; we estimate ~60% true
• • Away 2.40 would need at least 2.50 to be profitable on our 40% estimate

Pros

• + Clear market favorite (home) which reflects some implied edge
• + Away price is close to value threshold — a small market move could create value

Cons

• - Insufficient independent data to confidently inflate win probabilities
• - Current prices produce negative expected value on conservative estimates

Details

We have no external form, injury, or H2H data and therefore adopt conservative assumptions. The market prices the home pair at 1.52 (implied ~65.8%) and the away pair at 2.40 (implied ~41.7%). Given typical home advantage in smaller events but uncertainty around opponent strength, we estimate a 40.0% true win probability for the away side (and 60.0% for the home side). At our estimated 40% probability the away price (2.40) yields an EV of -0.04 per unit (0.40*2.40 - 1), so it does not represent positive expected value. The home price is even less attractive on our estimate. Because neither side shows positive expected value versus our conservative probabilities, we recommend no bet at the quoted prices and list the minimum decimal odds required for a profitable lay-in if prices move.

Key factors

• • No independent recent form/injury/H2H data — conservative baseline assumption
• • Home advantage assumed but not strong enough to justify favorite at 1.52
• • Bookmaker margin/short odds compress potential value