M. Fitriadi/C. Rungkat vs G. Lomakin/Yi Jui Lo

Highlights

• • Normalized home win probability ≈ 60.0%
• • Required fair odds for value: home ≥1.667, away ≥2.50

Pros

• + Home is favored by the market, suggesting some edge if additional positive info existed
• + Odds are tight and market looks efficient given no supplemental data

Cons

• - Current prices are shorter than our conservative fair prices — negative EV on both sides
• - No additional data (form, injuries, H2H, surface specifics) to justify deviating from conservative estimate

Details

Bookmaker odds imply a ~64.5% chance for the home pair (1.55) and ~43.0% for the away pair (2.33) but include a ~7.4% overround. Normalizing the book's prices gives a conservative true probability for the home side of ~60.0%. At that estimate the fair decimal price would be ~1.667, higher than the current 1.55, so the home line offers negative expected value. The away side would require odds around 2.50 to be +EV given a ~40.0% win chance; current 2.33 is also below that threshold. With no external form/injury/H2H data available, a conservative estimate and margin adjustment lead us to decline a bet because neither side offers positive EV at current prices.

Key factors

• • Book odds show home favorite but contain ~7.4% overround; we normalize to remove margin
• • No external form/injury/H2H data available — we use a conservative normalized probability of 60% for home
• • Current market prices (home 1.55, away 2.33) are both shorter than the break-even odds implied by our probabilities