Highlights

• • Home implied probability: 64.5% (market)
• • Our estimated true probability for home: 62.0% — requires ≥1.613 decimal to be +EV

Pros

• + Conservative stance avoids wagering on insufficient information
• + Clear threshold provided should odds drift higher (≥1.613) for the home side

Cons

• - If our conservative probability underestimates the favorite, we may miss a small-value opportunity
• - No actionable trade if markets do not move

Details

We take a conservative approach given no external data beyond the quoted prices. The market prices imply a 64.5% chance for the home pair (1/1.55 = 0.645). We estimate the true win probability for M. Geerts/T. Loof at 62.0% based on an assumption that the market slightly overstates the favorite in a low-information situation (unknown surface, form, injuries, and H2H). At our estimated probability the fair decimal price is ~1.613, which is higher than the available home price of 1.55, so the current market does not offer positive expected value on the home side. The away side looks overpriced relative to our view (market-implied 43.1% vs our implied away chance of 38.0%), but that is not a bettable value either because backing the underdog at 2.32 would produce negative expected value versus our probabilities. Therefore we recommend no bet under current prices and information.

Key factors

• • No external data on form, surface, injuries, or H2H — must be conservative
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.55) is ~64.5%, above our estimate
• • Small edge required: fair decimal price ~1.613 given our probability