Highlights

• • Home implied probability 68.5% vs our conservative estimate 60%
• • Negative expected value at current home price: -12.4% ROI

Pros

• + Home is clearly favored by the market (short price)
• + If additional positive information appears (injury to opponents, strong form), value could emerge

Cons

• - No available match-specific information to justify the market's implied probability
• - Our conservative model gives a negative EV at current odds

Details

We have no match-specific data, form, injury, surface, or head-to-head information, so we apply a conservative estimate. The market prices the home pairing at 1.46 (implied probability 68.5%). Given the lack of confirmatory information, we estimate the true win probability for M. Hoedt/S. Leon at 60.0%. At that probability the home side has a negative expected value versus the available price: EV = 0.60 * 1.46 - 1 = -0.124 (–12.4% ROI). To make the home side a value bet we would need a true win probability of at least 68.5% (min_required_decimal_odds ≤ 1.46); with our conservative estimate the fair decimal price is 1.667, well above the offered 1.46. We therefore recommend no bet at current prices because we cannot justify the level of confidence required to produce positive EV.

Key factors

• • No match-specific data (form, injuries, surface, H2H) — we apply conservative assumptions
• • Market-implied probability for home is ~68.5% (1/1.46)
• • Our conservative estimated true probability is 60%, below market-implied level, producing negative EV