Highlights

• • Home implied probability 78.1% vs our estimate 72%
• • Break-even decimal for our estimate is ~1.389; current price 1.28 is too short

Pros

• + Market clearly favors the home pair, indicating perceived strength
• + Prices are available and stable (heavy favourite) if later information justifies a re-rate

Cons

• - Current price (1.28) offers negative EV versus our conservative probability estimate
• - Lack of verifiable data (form/injuries/surface/H2H) increases model uncertainty

Details

Current market prices make the home side a heavy favourite (1.28 implied ~78.1%). We have no external data on recent form, surface performance, injuries, or H2H, so we apply conservative assumptions and account for higher variance in doubles matches. Conservatively we estimate the true win probability for M. Karol/D. Masur at 72%, lower than the market-implied ~78% and below the break-even threshold (78.125%). At that estimate the expected return on the 1.28 price is negative (EV ≈ -0.078), so there is no value to back the favourite. The market also shows a bookmaker overround (~8%), indicating prices are compressed; with limited information we avoid forcing a pick where the market is already shorter than our conservative belief.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (1.28) is ~78.1%; our conservative true estimate is 72%
• • No external data on form, surface, injuries, or H2H — increases uncertainty
• • Doubles matches are higher variance; heavy favourites can be upset more often than singles