M. Kempen/K. Piter vs E. Jacquemot/P. Kudermetova
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We do not recommend a side: at our conservative estimate (53% for the home pair) the 1.70 price is overpriced relative to required break-even (58.8%), producing a negative expected value.
Highlights
- • Home decimal 1.70 implies 58.8% win chance
- • Our conservative estimated true probability for home is 53%, producing −9.9% EV
Pros
- + Market is clear about the favorite, making thresholds easy to calculate
- + We used conservative probabilities to avoid overestimating value in absence of data
Cons
- - No match-specific data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) was available to refine probabilities
- - High uncertainty means small changes in true probability could flip value
Details
The market prices the home pair at 1.70 (implied win probability 58.8%). With no external data returned and high uncertainty, we apply a conservative estimated true probability for the home side of 53.0%. At that true probability the implied break-even probability for the 1.70 quote is 58.8%, which exceeds our estimate, so the home side shows negative expected value. EV calculation for the home line: EV = 0.53 * 1.70 - 1 = -0.099 (−9.9% per unit). The away price (2.06) requires a true win probability above ~48.5% to be +EV; our balanced uncertainty estimate for the away side (~47.0%) is below that threshold. Given the lack of independent form/surface/injury data and our conservative probabilities, neither side offers positive expected value at the current quotes.
Key factors
- • No external match-specific data available — high uncertainty
- • Market favours home at 1.70 (implied 58.8%), above our conservative estimate
- • Conservative probability estimate (53%) yields negative EV at current prices