Highlights

• • Market implies ~64.5% for the home side; we estimate 62%
• • Current odds produce a negative EV (~-3.9% on a 1-unit stake)

Pros

• + Home is the market favorite, indicating some implied strength
• + Odds would become attractive if they move to ~1.613 or higher

Cons

• - No reliable data on surface, recent form, or injuries to support a higher true probability
• - Doubles matches are more variable, increasing model uncertainty

Details

We have no external form, surface, or injury data and therefore apply a conservative estimated win probability for the home doubles pair. The market price (home 1.55) implies a win probability of ~0.645. We estimate the home team’s true probability at 0.62 based on typical home/favorite bias and the higher variance in doubles; this is lower than the market-implied 0.645, so the available home price does not offer value. With our estimate the expected return at 1.55 is negative (EV = 0.62*1.55 - 1 = -0.039), so we recommend no side unless odds rise above our min required decimal price.

Key factors

• • No match-specific data (form, injuries, H2H) available — conservative baseline applied
• • Book implied probability (1/1.55 = 0.645) is higher than our conservative true probability (0.62)
• • Doubles outcomes have higher variance, increasing uncertainty and reducing edge