Highlights

• • Implied home probability at 1.66 is ~60.2%
• • Our conservative true probability estimate is 56%, requiring odds ≥1.786 for value

Pros

• + Away players have demonstrable recent weakness which supports some favoritism for the home pair
• + Market has priced the home side as favorite, reflecting perceived edge

Cons

• - We lack any data on the home pairing (Kobori/Shimizu), increasing model uncertainty
• - Current market odds (1.66) are shorter than our minimum-value threshold (1.786), producing negative EV

Details

We estimate the home pair is priced at 1.66 (implied probability 60.2%) but, given the only available research is on the away players (Na Ri Kim and Qiu Yu Ye) showing weak recent form (each 10-21 on the season with poor recent results on hard courts) and no verifiable data on M. Kobori/A. Shimizu, we take a conservative true-win probability for the home side of 56.0%. At that probability the fair odds are ~1.786, so the current market price (1.66) offers negative expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.56 * 1.66 - 1 = -0.0704 (≈ -7.0% ROI), so we do not recommend a bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • Away pair players (Na Ri Kim, Qiu Yu Ye) show poor season form (10-21) and recent losses on hard courts
• • No reliable performance or matchup data available for M. Kobori/A. Shimizu increases uncertainty and forces a conservative probability
• • Market-implied probability for home (60.2%) exceeds our estimated true probability (56%), producing negative EV