Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.62) = 61.7%
• • Our conservative true probability estimate for home = 58.0% → required odds 1.724

Pros

• + Home is the market favorite, indicating perceived quality advantage
• + Odds are reasonable for match probability if one favours the home pair strongly

Cons

• - Current home price (1.62) does not provide value versus our conservative estimate
• - No external form/injury/H2H data available to justify overruling the market

Details

We compared the current market prices (home 1.62, away 2.25) to a conservative true-probability estimate for the home pair. With no independent research available, we adopt a cautious view: the home team is slightly better in our estimate but not enough to overcome the bookmaker's margin. The market-implied probability for the home side is ~61.7% (1/1.62). Our conservative estimated true probability for the home team is 58.0%, which implies a fair price of ~1.724. At the current price of 1.62 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.58 * 1.62 - 1 ≈ -0.060), so we do not identify value on either side. The away side (2.25) would require a greater true probability (~44.4% implied) than we assign it under conservative assumptions, so it also offers no value.

Key factors

• • No recent independent data; conservative assumptions applied
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.62) is ~61.7%, above our 58% estimate
• • Required fair odds (1.724) exceed available price, yielding negative EV