M. Krueger/J. Sheehy vs P. Kumar/K. Pearson

Highlights

• • Market favours home at 1.42 (implied ~70%), but our conservative model gives ~63%
• • Required fair odds for positive EV are ~1.587; current quote is well below that

Pros

• + Home is priced as a clear favorite, implying relative strength
• + If additional confirming info (injury to away, lineup change) appears, value could emerge

Cons

• - No concrete data on form, surface performance, or pair chemistry to justify overriding the market
• - Short favorite price offers negative EV under conservative probability estimates

Details

We have no external data beyond the quoted moneylines, so we make conservative assumptions. The market prices the home pair at 1.42 (implied ~70.4%). Given the uncertainty around form, surface specifics, pair chemistry in doubles, and no injury/H2H information, we conservatively estimate the true win probability for the home side at 63%. At that probability the fair odds are ~1.587; the offered 1.42 is too short and produces a negative expected value. The away price 2.70 would require us to believe the underdog has ≥37.0% chance to be +EV; we have no basis to raise their probability that high versus the market. Therefore we do not recommend a side at these prices.

Key factors

• • No match-specific data (form, injuries, H2H) available—we use conservative priors
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.42) is ~70%; our conservative estimate is 63%
• • Doubles outcomes are more volatile; without evidence to shift probabilities, avoid betting on short prices