Highlights

• • Home priced at 1.49 implies ~62.5% true chance after vig normalization
• • Our conservative estimate for the home side is ~50%, requiring odds ≥2.00 for value

Pros

• + Market clearly favors the home team, which sometimes signals public bias
• + If additional positive info on partners appears, value could emerge

Cons

• - Insufficient data on partners and opponents — high model uncertainty
• - Known player (M. Lewis) has a weak recent record, lowering confidence in home-side edge

Details

We cannot find value on the market favorite. The available data show one player on the home side (M. Lewis) with an overall weak recent record (10-21, limited successful results) and limited surface/context detail for partners; the away pairing has no provided data. The market prices the home team at 1.49 (implied ~67% raw, ~62.5% after normalizing for vig). Given M. Lewis's poor recent results and the complete lack of reliable information on both partners/opponents, our conservative true win probability for the home team is ~50%. At that probability the fair price is 2.00, which is well above the available 1.49 — producing a negative expected value. Because our estimated probability is lower than the market-implied probability, we do not recommend taking the home line at current prices.

Key factors

• • M. Lewis recent form is poor (10-21 overall) and provides limited confidence
• • No usable data provided for partners/opponents, increasing uncertainty
• • Market heavily favors home (1.49) — price implies a probability materially above our conservative estimate