M. Martineau/J. Paris vs M. Hermans/P. Zahraj

Highlights

• • Estimated away win probability: 35%
• • Required decimal odds for value: ≥ 2.857; current price 3.00 yields ~+5% EV

Pros

• + Current away price (3.00) exceeds our minimum required odds (2.857)
• + Doubles volatility increases likelihood that market overprices clear favorites

Cons

• - Edge is small (EV ≈ 5%) and sensitive to probability estimates
• - No match-specific data available (surface, recent form, injuries) increases uncertainty

Details

Market-implied probabilities are Home 1.35 -> 74.07% and Away 3.00 -> 33.33%. With no external form, injury, or H2H data available we use conservative assumptions: the home pair are favored but not as overwhelmingly as the market implies. We estimate the true win probability for the away pair at 35% (home 65%). At decimal 3.00 this gives positive expected value: 0.35 * 3.00 - 1 = +0.05 (5% ROI). The market appears to overstate the favorite (home) and slightly underprices the away side given doubles volatility and the absence of clear edges for the favorite. Because the edge is small and information is limited, we remain conservative with the probability estimate but still identify the away side as value at the current widely-available price of 3.00.

Key factors

• • No external form, injury, or H2H data available — assumptions must be conservative
• • Market-implied home probability (74%) looks high relative to a conservative true estimate
• • Doubles matches have higher variance; underdogs can present small edges