Highlights

• • Away priced at 1.01 implies ~99% — market likely overconfident
• • Conservative true-home probability (~10%) makes 16.0 a strong value

Pros

• + Large gap between market odds and conservative probability produces high EV
• + Available form data for M. Lewis suggests vulnerability that the market may be overstating

Cons

• - Limited data on the home pairing (M. Matias/M. Nozdrachova) increases uncertainty
• - Extreme longshot outcomes are high variance; a positive EV does not guarantee short-term profit

Details

We see the market pricing the away side (M. Lewis/B. Walker) at 1.01 (implied ~99% win probability), which is extreme and unlikely given the only available performance data showing M. Lewis has a 10-21 career match record (≈32% win rate) with multiple recent losses. That recent form and overall win rate make a near-certain 99% probability implausible. Even allowing uncertainty about doubles pairing strength, a conservative true probability for the home pair (M. Matias/M. Nozdrachova) to win is about 10%. At that probability the home decimal odds fair value would be 10.000; the market is offering 16.0, producing significant positive expected value (EV = 0.10*16.0 - 1 = +0.60, i.e. 60% ROI). We therefore recommend the home upset at current published odds because the market appears to have severely overstated the away side's chance.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~99% for away (1.01) which is implausible given available form data
• • M. Lewis career record 10-21 (~32% win rate) with multiple recent losses
• • Home underdog price 16.0 is generous relative to conservative true probability estimate