M. Yanguas Diez/J. Nieto vs G. Rubio Pérez/J. Ruiz Gonzalez

Highlights

• • Home implied probability far exceeds our conservative true estimate
• • Both sides offer negative expected value at current prices

Pros

• + Clear detection of overpriced favorite — market is extremely short
• + Conservative stance avoids value traps when data is lacking

Cons

• - If our true probability underestimates the favorite (i.e., >90%), we may miss small positive edges
• - Lack of detailed match-specific info increases uncertainty

Details

We estimate this doubles pairing is heavily favored but not as extreme as the market implies. The book market prices the home side at 1.05 (implied ~95.2%); we apply a conservative true win probability of 90% given unknown surface, form and lack of injury information. At our 90% estimate the fair decimal price is 1.111, meaning the current 1.05 offers negative expected value (EV = 0.90 * 1.05 - 1 = -0.055, or -5.5% ROI). The away side at 9.0 would require a true win probability of ~11.1% to be fair; our conservative away estimate ~10% also produces negative EV (0.10 * 9.0 - 1 = -0.10). Given both sides show negative EV versus our conservative probabilities, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (home 95.2%) appears overstated relative to conservative estimate
• • No independent form, surface or injury data available — we use conservative estimates to avoid overconfidence
• • Doubles matches have higher variance; extreme short prices reduce value unless certainty is near absolute