M. Aikawa/Y. Chikaraishi vs Hyeongju Han/Gaeul Jang

Highlights

• • Home implied probability 56.2% vs our estimate 60%
• • Recommended because current odds (1.78) are above our fair odds (1.667)

Pros

• + Positive expected value at widely-available current price
• + Away contains player with poor recent results, lowering their implied strength

Cons

• - Doubles-specific performance and H2H information are lacking
• - Unknown surface/venue and possible unreported injuries increase variance

Details

We estimate value on the home side (M. Aikawa/Y. Chikaraishi). The market prices the home team at 1.78 (implied probability 56.18%). Using the available research, the away pairing includes Gaeul Jang, whose recent documented singles form is weak (career 10-21 over 31 matches with multiple recent losses). That suggests the away side is likely below market-implied strength—especially given limited evidence of strong doubles form for the away pairing. We conservatively estimate the true probability for the home team at 60.0% (0.60), which implies fair odds of 1.667. At the available price of 1.78 this produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.60*1.78 - 1 = 0.068, or about 6.8% ROI). Key uncertainties include scarce doubles-specific data, unknown surface/venue impact, and potential unreported injuries, so we keep the probability conservative. Because the current odds (1.78) exceed our min_required_decimal_odds (1.667), we recommend backing the home side as a value play.

Key factors

• • Away pairing includes Gaeul Jang, recent documented singles form is poor (10-21 record, recent losses)
• • Market-priced home at 1.78 implies 56.2% chance; our read is ~60% so price offers value
• • Limited doubles-specific and venue/surface data increases uncertainty (we used conservative probability)