Highlights

• • Away implied market probability (1.65) does not exceed our 58% estimated win chance required for positive EV
• • Home would need >47.17% true probability to be +EV at 2.12, which is above the market-normalized estimate

Pros

• + Conservative, market-aware approach reduces risk of overconfidence
• + Clear break-even thresholds provided for reference if odds move

Cons

• - No granular match-specific data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) to refine probabilities
• - Potential value could exist if new info emerges, but not visible now

Details

We have no external match data and must use conservative assumptions. The market prices (Home 2.12, Away 1.65) imply the away pair is favorite; normalizing for vig places the market probability for the away team around mid-50s. Using a conservative true probability estimate of 58% for the away side, the current price of 1.65 does not offer positive expected value (EV = 0.58 * 1.65 - 1 = -0.043). The home side would need a true win probability above ~47.17% to be +EV at 2.12, which is materially higher than the market-implied normalized probability for the home pair. Given the lack of additional information (form, surface, injuries, H2H), we decline to recommend a side because neither price shows value against a conservative estimate.

Key factors

• • No external data available; we use conservative probability estimates
• • Market odds imply the away team is favorite; normalized market probability for away is mid-50s
• • Neither side's current price clears the required break-even threshold given our conservative probabilities