Highlights

• • Current implied home probability 33.9% vs our estimate 44%
• • Minimum fair decimal odds needed for value: 2.273; market offers 2.95

Pros

• + Significant price discrepancy between market and our conservative probability
• + Doubles matches are higher variance, increasing upset potential

Cons

• - No specific form, surface, or injury data available — estimate carries uncertainty
• - Bookmaker vig and market inefficiencies may reflect information we don't have

Details

We view the market as overpricing the away pair at 1.36 (implied win ~73.5%) while the home pair is offered at 2.95 (implied ~33.9%). With no external form, injury, or H2H data available, we make a conservative assumption that the match is closer to even than the market implies and assign the home pair a 44.0% chance to win. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~2.273, well below the current 2.95, creating value. We also note a bookmaker vigorish (~7.4% on the two-way market), which exaggerates the favorite’s edge; doubles matches carry higher variance, which supports taking a value on the underdog when the price is this wide. Given these points, betting the home side at 2.95 yields positive expected value under our conservative estimate, but we flag elevated uncertainty due to the lack of concrete match-specific data.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors away (1.36) producing a large implied probability gap
• • No match-specific data available — we assume near-parity and apply conservative estimate
• • Bookmaker vig (~7.4%) inflates favorite pricing; doubles variance can produce upsets