Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability: 35%
• • Current odds 2.95 give ~3.25% expected ROI

Pros

• + Market appears to slightly underprice the home side relative to our conservative estimate
• + Modest positive EV while away price is compressed

Cons

• - Very limited pre-match information increases model uncertainty
• - Small edge only (~3.25% EV); results may be volatile in doubles

Details

We estimate M. Brooks/J. Failla have a ~35% chance to win (0.35) based on conservative parity assumptions for a doubles match and the lack of additional form/injury/H2H information. The market currently prices the home side at 2.95 (implied probability 33.9%), while the away team is a short 1.36 (implied 73.5%). The book's overround (~7.4%) inflates the favourite price; after adjusting conservatively we still see a small edge on the home side. At our probability (35%), the fair decimal price is 2.857, so the current 2.95 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.35 * 2.95 - 1 = 0.0325), a modest ~3.25% ROI on a 1-unit stake. Given the limited information and typical volatility in doubles, this is a small-value, higher-uncertainty play rather than a strong confidence bet.

Key factors

• • Current market implies home win probability ~33.9% (1/2.95), we estimate 35%
• • Book overround (~7.4%) increases implied favourite probability
• • No external form/injury/H2H data available — increases uncertainty