M. Capurro Taborda/M. Gomez Pezuela Cano vs H. Bueno/M. Eduarda Lages

Highlights

• • Market price implies ~97% win chance but we estimate ~92%
• • Break-even odds for value are ~1.087; current 1.03 is below that threshold

Pros

• + Home side is heavily favored, implying a high chance to win
• + Low variance outcome likely, given heavy favoritism

Cons

• - Available odds are too short to provide positive expected value
• - No supporting public data (form/surface/injury/H2H) to justify accepting a lower edge

Details

We compared the listed market price (home 1.03, implied probability ~97.1%) to a conservative, data-sparse true probability estimate. Given the lack of additional form, surface, injury, or H2H data, we conservatively estimate the home pairing's true win probability at 92% to account for bookmaker margin and the non-zero upset risk inherent in tennis doubles. At p = 0.92 the break-even decimal price is 1.087; the current price of 1.03 is substantially shorter than that, producing negative expected value. Therefore we do not recommend taking the heavy favorite at the available market price because it offers negative ROI.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (1.03) is ~97.1% which likely embeds bookmaker margin
• • No independent form, surface, injury, or H2H data available — we apply a conservative discount to the market price
• • A realistic upset chance in doubles means the true probability is likely materially below the bookmaker-implied figure