M. Capurro Taborda/M. Gomez Pezuela Cano vs M. Reasco Gonzalez/H. Shaikh
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: our conservative estimate implies fair odds of ~1.770 for the home side, slightly above the market 1.75, producing a small negative EV.
Highlights
- • Estimated home win probability: 56.5%
- • Market home odds (1.75) are marginally shorter than our fair price (1.770)
Pros
- + Market shows a small edge to the home pairing, consistent with our slight home preference
- + Clear threshold for value: home odds >= 1.770 would become +EV
Cons
- - No match-specific data (surface, recent form, injuries, H2H) — elevates uncertainty
- - EV margin is very small; tiny estimate errors flip the decision
Details
We compared the market moneyline (Home 1.75 / Away 1.98) to a conservative estimated true probability for the home pairing. With no external form, surface, or injury data available, we adopt a cautious estimate that the home pair has a 56.5% chance to win. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.770, which is slightly above the current market home price (1.75). Calculating EV at the market home odds: EV = 0.565 * 1.75 - 1 = -0.01125 (negative), so there is no positive expected value to justify a bet at the quoted 1.75. Because of limited information and doubles volatility, we decline to recommend the away side as well—its market price (1.98) implies a lower chance and would require a markedly different probability estimate to become +EV.
Key factors
- • No external form/injury/surface data available — higher uncertainty
- • Market favours home slightly (1.75); our conservative true probability implies fair odds ~1.770
- • Doubles matches are more variable; small edges can disappear quickly