Highlights

• • Away implied probability (raw) ~82%; normalized ~76.4%
• • Our conservative true probability estimate is 75% → fair odds 1.333, current 1.22

Pros

• + Clear pricing gap: current market is short on the favorite, reducing contrarian value
• + Conservative estimate avoids overconfidence given lack of data

Cons

• - High informational uncertainty (no form, surface, or injury data available)
• - Small margins between our estimate and market mean tight edges — susceptible to error

Details

Bookmakers price the away pair at 1.22 (implied win ~82%), which is very short. After normalizing for overround the implied normalized probability is ~76.4%. With no external data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) and taking a conservative estimate that the away team’s true win probability is about 75.0%, the market price is slightly overestimating them. At our estimated probability (0.75) the fair decimal price is 1.333; the offered 1.22 produces a negative expected return (EV = 0.75*1.22 - 1 = -0.085). Because EV at current odds is negative we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~82% raw probability (1/1.22) but normalised to ~76.4% after overround
• • We conservatively estimate away win probability at 75% given no additional information
• • Offered price (1.22) is shorter than the fair price (1.333) so it lacks value