M. Imamura/N. Tajima vs N. Nakagawa/R. Tanuma

Highlights

• • Our min acceptable odds for the away side are 2.632; current 2.70 > required
• • Estimated ROI is small (~2.6% per unit) — positive but marginal

Pros

• + Clear, small positive expected value at available market price
• + Simple, conservative assumptions reduce the chance of overfitting

Cons

• - Edge is small and sensitive to small changes in true probability
• - Recommendation relies on priors due to lack of match-specific info (higher uncertainty)

Details

We have no match-specific data, so we apply a conservative prior that the listed home pair has a moderate edge; we estimate M. Imamura/N. Tajima win probability at ~62% and therefore N. Nakagawa/R. Tanuma at ~38%. The market prices (home 1.42 → implied 70.4%, away 2.70 → implied 37.0%) overstate the home side relative to our conservative view. At 2.70 for the away side our estimated probability (0.38) produces a small positive expected value. Given the limited information, this is a marginal value edge rather than a strong conviction—the recommendation is driven solely by the difference between our conservative probability estimate and the market-implied probability.

Key factors

• • No match-specific data available — conservative priors used
• • Market implies home 70.4% (1.42) which we view as overstated
• • Away priced at 2.70 implies 37.0%; our estimate 38% yields slight positive EV