Highlights

• • Current odds 1.19 vs our fair price 1.136 → positive EV
• • Opponents combined recent record shows no wins, all losses on hard courts

Pros

• + Clear form advantage based on opponent records
• + Market price offers a cushion above our conservative fair value

Cons

• - No explicit data provided for the home pairing’s form or H2H
• - Very small sample sizes for opponents increase variance and upset risk

Details

The market prices the home pairing at 1.19 (implied probability ~84.0%). The away pairing (Adachi/Otsuka) have effectively no recent success on record (Adachi 0-5 across recent events, Otsuka 0-1) and both losses cited are on hard courts, which reduces the likelihood they upset a presumably stronger home pairing. We estimate the true probability of the home team winning at 88.0% based on form disparity and surface context. At that probability the fair decimal price is 1.136, which is lower than the available 1.19, creating positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.88 * 1.19 - 1 = 0.047 (4.7% ROI). Caveats: the sample sizes for the opponents are small and there is no direct data provided on the home pair’s record, so we conservatively limit our true probability to 88% rather than a higher number.

Key factors

• • Away pair very poor recent form: Adachi 0-5, Otsuka 0-1 (losses on hard)
• • Market implied probability (1/1.19 ≈ 84.0%) is below our estimated true probability (88%)
• • Small sample sizes and lack of published data for home pair introduce uncertainty