M. Kempen/K. Piter vs E. Jacquemot/P. Kudermetova

Highlights

• • Market implies home win ~58.8% (1.70) but includes significant overround
• • At our 53% estimate the home odds must be >= 1.887 to be +EV

Pros

• + Market clearly favors the home pair, so small edges would be required to find value
• + Available liquidity at popular prices likely stable

Cons

• - No independent data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) to justify a higher true probability
• - Current quoted prices are too short relative to our conservative estimate

Details

We have no external information beyond the quoted prices, so we adopt a conservative prior and treat the matchup as close. The market prices (home 1.70, away 2.06) imply a strong favoritism to the home pair (implied probability ~58.8%) but the book's overround (~7.4%) inflates those probabilities. Conservatively we estimate the true win probability for M. Kempen/K. Piter at 53.0% (0.53) given the lack of supporting data for a larger edge. At the quoted home decimal 1.70 the expected value would be negative (EV = 0.53 * 1.70 - 1 = -0.099), so the market price is shorter than the fair price implied by our probability. To reach non-negative EV at our estimate we would need minimum decimal odds of ~1.887. Because current available odds do not meet that threshold we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No external research available — we use a conservative prior
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.70) is ~58.8%, but book overround inflates it
• • Our conservative true probability (53%) implies required odds ~1.887 for break-even