Highlights

• • Home priced at 1.93 vs implied market preference for away at 1.79
• • Away player Tang has weak recent form (10-21), supporting a lower true probability for the away side

Pros

• + Positive expected value at the current home price (≈6.15% ROI)
• + Market appears to underweight recent poor form shown by Tang

Cons

• - Sparse data on the home pairing means our probability includes a wider uncertainty margin
• - Surface/venue impact and possible partner form/injuries are not documented, increasing risk

Details

We find value backing the home team (M. Kozyreva/I. Shymanovich) because the market slightly favors the away side at 1.79 despite Qianhui Tang's documented poor recent results (10-21 career record and multiple recent losses). Using a conservative adjusted true probability of 55% for the home pair (reflecting Tang's weak form and the lack of evidence that the away pairing is significantly stronger), the current home decimal price 1.93 implies positive expected value: EV = 0.55 * 1.93 - 1 = +0.0615 (≈6.15% ROI). Uncertainty is elevated because we have limited information on the home pairing and surface-specific form, so our probability incorporates a margin for that uncertainty. We recommend the home side only because it offers positive EV at the quoted 1.93; if the available home odds were below ~1.818 there would be no value.

Key factors

• • Qianhui Tang recent results show a 10-21 record and multiple recent losses, indicating reduced win expectancy for the away side
• • Market currently prices the away team as slight favorite (1.79) while the home side is offered at 1.93, creating a pricing discrepancy
• • Limited information on the home pairing and surface specifics increases uncertainty, so probabilities include a conservative margin