M. Pawelska/S. Zhenikhova vs M. Biro/N. Klys
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive edge on the away pair at 11.5 decimal based on a conservative true probability estimate of 9.5%, yielding ~9.3% ROI; uncertainty is high due to lack of data.
Highlights
- • Implied away chance 8.7% vs our conservative estimate 9.5%
- • Positive EV of ~0.0925 per 1 unit staked at current odds
Pros
- + Current price (11.5) exceeds the minimum required odds (10.526) for our estimated probability, producing positive EV
- + Doubles volatility supports a slightly higher upset probability than extreme favorites suggest
Cons
- - Very limited information on teams, surface, recent form, and injuries increases risk of mis-estimation
- - Edge is modest; a small overestimate of true probability would remove value
Details
With no external data available we apply conservative assumptions. The market prices the away pair at 11.5 decimal (implied win probability 8.70%) while the home pair is a very short 1.04 (implied 96.15%). We conservatively estimate the away pair's true win probability at 9.5% (home ~90.5%) based on the typical upset frequency in lower-tier doubles events and the inherent volatility of doubles. At that estimate the away side offers positive expected value: EV = 0.095 * 11.5 - 1 = 0.0925 (9.25% ROI). The value is modest but present; the recommendation is tempered by high uncertainty due to lack of form, surface, and injury data.
Key factors
- • Market-implied away probability is low (~8.7%), creating potential value for a small increase in true upset chance
- • Doubles matches, especially at lower levels, have higher upset variance than singles — supports slightly higher true upset probability
- • No available info on injuries, form, or surface increases uncertainty; we apply conservative (not optimistic) probability adjustments