M. Ponchet/M. Sabas vs L. Deflandre/E. Jarzaguet

Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.52) = ~65.8% vs our estimate 60%
• • Current prices are off our conservative fair value threshold (home needs ≥1.667 to be +EV)

Pros

• + Home is the market favorite, indicating some advantage
• + Odds would become attractive for home if they drift to ≥1.667

Cons

• - No verifiable data on recent form, surface fit, or partnerships to support a larger edge
• - Small-event doubles volatility means higher estimation uncertainty and downside risk

Details

We have no external data on form, surface, injuries, or H2H, so we apply a conservative prior. The market prices the home side at 1.52 (implied ~65.8%). Given the lack of corroborating information and the fact this is a doubles pairing in a smaller event, we estimate the home pair's true win probability at 60% and the away pair at 40%. At our 60% estimate the home side's fair decimal price is ~1.667, meaning the current market price of 1.52 offers negative expected value (EV = 0.60*1.52 - 1 = -0.088). The away side would require a true probability above ~41.7% to be +EV at 2.40; our conservative 40% estimate falls short. Therefore we do not recommend a bet at current prices. If odds move to 1.667 or higher for the home side (or the market offers ≥2.50 on the away side and our estimates remain unchanged) value would appear.

Key factors

• • No external data available on form, surface, injuries or H2H—estimates are conservative
• • Market implies a stronger home advantage (~65.8%), but we assign a smaller edge (60%) to allow for uncertainty
• • Smaller-event doubles pairings carry extra variance (team chemistry, pairing experience) increasing uncertainty