M. Skoch/S. Waltert vs A. Sobolieva/A K. Toth

Highlights

• • Market favorite is very short (1.14) with implied probability ~87.7%
• • Our conservative true probability (86%) produces a small negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Clear market favorite — lower variance outcome likely
• + If additional positive information (injury to opponents, clear form advantage) emerges, the pick could flip to value

Cons

• - Current price is too short to offer positive expected value under conservative assumptions
• - We lack surface, form, and injury data; uncertainty argues against aggressive sizing or forcing a bet

Details

We treat the listed market (Home 1.14 / Away 5.2) as heavily favoring the home pair but apply conservative assumptions because no form, surface, injury, or H2H data are available. The market-implied probability for the home side is ~87.7% (1/1.14). We estimate a true win probability for the home team at 86.0% to allow a modest margin for unknown factors and the bookmaker overround. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.163, which is longer than the current 1.14 available. Using the current home price of 1.14 yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.86 * 1.14 - 1 ≈ -0.020), so there is no positive-value bet on either side at the quoted prices. If larger confidence pushed our true probability above ~87.7% we would consider the favorite, but with conservative assumptions we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied favorite probability is ~87.7% for the home pair
• • No external form, surface, injury, or H2H data available — we apply a conservative margin
• • Estimated true probability (86%) implies fair odds ~1.163, which is longer than the market price
• • Bookmaker overround and short favorite price remove positive expected value at available odds