M. Skoch/S. Waltert vs D. Jakupovic/N. Radisic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We do not recommend a bet — the favorite’s market price (1.49) is slightly too short relative to our conservative 66% win estimate, producing a small negative EV.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~67.1% for the home pair; we estimate 66.0%
- • EV on the favorite at current odds is approximately -0.017 (loss of 1.7% of stake)
Pros
- + Favorite status reflects market confidence
- + Odds for the favorite are widely available and liquid
Cons
- - Insufficient external data (form, injuries, surface) increases model uncertainty
- - Market price already incorporates most available information, leaving no value margin
Details
Market prices imply the home pair is a clear favorite (decimal 1.49 -> implied ~67.1%). With no external form, surface, injury, or H2H information available we adopt a conservative estimate that slightly discounts the market edge for the favorite to account for uncertainty and doubles volatility. We estimate the true win probability for M. Skoch/S. Waltert at 66.0%, which is below the market-implied threshold needed to generate a positive edge at the quoted 1.49. At that estimate the expected value on the favorite is negative (EV ≈ -0.017 per unit). The away side would need a substantially higher true probability (or better odds) to offer value; given the apparent market skew toward the favorites and lack of corroborating information, we do not find value on the underdog either.
Key factors
- • No external form, injury, surface or H2H data available — high information uncertainty
- • Market-implied probability for the favorite (1.49) is ~67.1%; our conservative estimate is 66.0%
- • Small margin between our probability and market threshold means no positive expected value at current prices