M. Skoch/S. Waltert vs K. Juvan/K. Novak

Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.40) = 71.4%; our estimate = 65%
• • Fair odds for home at p=0.65 = 1.538; current 1.40 is too short

Pros

• + We avoid taking a low-confidence bet given missing information
• + Conservative approach reduces gambler's bias and overestimation of favorites

Cons

• - If hidden information (injury/form/surface advantage) strongly favors the favorite, we may be underestimating value
• - Conservative priors can miss small edges in markets where we lack data

Details

There are no external research sources available, so we use conservative priors. The market prices the home pair at 1.40 (implied probability 71.4%). Given the lack of form, surface, injury, and H2H data, we downgrade the favorite slightly to a 65.0% true win probability to account for bookmaker margin and uncertainty. At p=0.65 the fair odds are ~1.538; the current market price of 1.40 is shorter than fair and therefore offers negative expected value. We also checked the away side: market odds 2.75 imply ~36.4% but our conservative estimate would be ~35%, which is also negative EV at the quoted price. Because neither side clears positive EV under conservative assumptions, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No external data available — we apply conservative priors to avoid overconfidence
• • Bookmaker favorite (1.40) implies 71.4% — we discount this to 65% for margin/uncertainty
• • Under our estimate neither side offers positive EV at current prices