M. Skoch/S. Waltert vs S. Ambrosio/A. Zantedeschi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value detected at current prices; the home favorite is priced too short relative to our conservative 70% win estimate, and the away odds are not attractive enough given our underdog probability.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability from 1.33 = ~75.2%
- • Our conservative true probability for home = 70% → required fair odds = 1.429
Pros
- + Home team is the clear market favorite, suggesting a higher baseline chance to win
- + Market pricing is consistent with a favorite/underdog split, so downside for betting the favorite is limited if one must bet
Cons
- - No specific information on surface, form, injuries or direct H2H to justify beating the market
- - Home odds (1.33) are shorter than our required fair odds (1.429), giving negative EV
Details
We estimate the home pair M. Skoch/S. Waltert is the clear favorite but, given no additional information on surface, recent form, injuries or head-to-head, we adopt a conservative true-win probability of 70% for the home team. The bookmaker decimal price for the home side (1.33) implies a win probability of ~75.2%, which is shorter than our conservative estimate, so it offers negative expected value. The away price (3.15) implies ~31.7% but would require a true probability >31.7% to be +EV; under our view the away team is closer to 30% and thus also negative EV at current prices. With the available market quotes and conservative priors, neither side presents value versus the listed odds.
Key factors
- • Bookmaker-implied probability for home (1.33) > our conservative true probability estimate
- • No external data on surface, recent form, injuries or H2H — forcing conservative priors
- • Notable bookmaker overround (~6.9%) in the two-way market reduces apparent value