M. Yanguas Diez/J. Nieto vs F. Chingotto/A. Galan
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With no supporting research and conservative probability estimates, the current prices do not offer positive expected value on either side; we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Away implied probability (~87%) is higher than our conservative estimate (80%).
- • Home needs >20% true chance to be +EV at 5.00; we estimate it at the break-even or below.
Pros
- + Market clearly identifies a strong favorite, reducing downside of following market opinion.
- + Longshot home price offers high payoff if an upset occurs.
Cons
- - Favorite price is too short to represent value versus our conservative probability.
- - Lack of research data makes estimates uncertain — higher risk of mispricing.
Details
Market prices (Away 1.15 / Home 5.00) heavily favour the away pair; the implied market probability for the away side is ~87.0%. With no external data returned and in the interest of conservative, value-driven decision-making, we estimate the away team’s true win probability at 80% and the home team at 20%. At those estimates the favorite at 1.15 offers negative expected value (EV = 0.80 * 1.15 - 1 = -0.08). The home price of 5.00 would require a true win probability >20% to be profitable; our conservative home estimate of 20% (exact break-even) does not provide value either. Given the lack of corroborating information on form, surface fit, injuries, or H2H and the built-in bookmaker margin, neither side represents a positive EV at the current prices.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for the away side is ~87% (very short price).
- • No external data available (form, injuries, surface, H2H), increasing uncertainty.
- • Home price (5.00) requires >20% true win probability to be profitable; our conservative estimate does not exceed that threshold.