Highlights

• • Market implies ~79.1% for MOUZ; our conservative estimate is 72.0%
• • Required decimal odds for value on MOUZ would need to be ≥ 1.389 (i.e., price worse than current 1.265)

Pros

• + Favored team likely has the edge under normal conditions
• + Low payout risk if betting on favorite, but no value

Cons

• - Current favorite price does not offer positive expected value
• - Significant informational uncertainty (no lineup/form/H2H data) increases outcome variance

Details

We estimate MOUZ is the stronger side but, given the lack of independent match data, lineup information, and recent form details, we apply conservative assumptions. The market price implies a win probability of ~79.1% for MOUZ (decimal 1.265). Our best conservative estimate of MOUZ's true win probability is 72.0%, which is lower than the implied probability, so the favorite is overpriced. Using the current home price (1.265) yields negative expected value (EV = 0.72 * 1.265 - 1 = -0.089), so there is no value on MOUZ at the provided odds. We therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.265) > our conservative win estimate (72%), removing value
• • No available web-sourced details on lineups, recent form, or map pool to justify upward revision
• • Esports match outcomes (CS2) have high variance due to map veto and momentum; favorites can be upset