Highlights

• • Market overestimates Maan given his weak win record
• • Felix at 3.5 offers a substantial theoretical edge if our probability estimate holds

Pros

• + Clear numerical value vs market-implied price (EV = +0.40)
• + Both players are on hard courts, reducing surface-based variance in the projection

Cons

• - Very small sample sizes for both players make probability estimates noisy
• - Recent form shows both players losing, so matchup could be more volatile than records indicate

Details

We view the market as overpricing Maan Kesharwani. The posted moneyline implies Felix Mischker has ~28.6% chance (3.5 decimal), but our read of the provided records suggests a much tighter contest. Maan's career 2-14 record (12.5% win rate) versus Felix's 1-3 (25% win rate) and both players' recent losses on hard courts indicate we should not give Maan near the ~79% implied chance. Accounting for small sample sizes but valuing Felix's comparable hard-court exposure and slightly better win rate, we estimate Felix's true win probability at 40%. At the available price of 3.5 (odds_used_for_ev = 3.5), that produces EV = 0.4 * 3.5 - 1 = 0.40 (40% ROI). Given the high uncertainty in these tiny samples, this is a speculative value edge rather than a low-risk certainty.

Key factors

• • Maan Kesharwani has a poor career record (2-14) compared with Felix Mischker (1-3), implying market favoritism may be misplaced
• • Both players have recent hard-court matches and losses—surface exposure is similar, reducing a clear quality edge for Maan
• • Market-implied probability for Felix (≈28.6%) appears low versus our estimated true probability (40%), creating a value opportunity