Highlights

• • Market implies ~84% for Ehrenschneider; career data suggests far lower true probability
• • At our 30% estimate for Mac, the current price (4.37) yields ~0.311 ROI per unit staked

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current odds (EV ≈ +0.311) if our probability estimate is reasonable
• + Required decimal odds for break-even (3.333) are well below the offered 4.37

Cons

• - Very limited information on Mac Visser increases model uncertainty—our estimate is conservative but uncertain
• - Small recent-sample data for Ehrenschneider; results could be context-dependent (surface, opponent level) not visible in provided research

Details

The market heavily favors Nino Ehrenschneider at decimal 1.189 (implied ~84%), but his career win rate (48-35, ~58%) and recent results (mixed 1-1 on 18-Aug-2025) do not support an 84% true win probability. The implied probability on Mac Visser (1/4.37 ≈ 22.9%) appears too low given the uncertainty and the discrepancy between market pricing and Ehrenschneider's career form. With very limited public info on Mac Visser, we take a conservative but value-seeking stance: assigning Mac a 30% true win probability produces positive EV at the available price (4.37). This view is reinforced by the bookmaker margin (~7% on the two-way line), which can exaggerate favorite prices. Because Nino’s documented career numbers and recent mixed results don’t justify an 84% true chance, the underdog price offers value if one is comfortable with the data gaps.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Ehrenschneider (~84%) is much higher than his career win rate (~58%)
• • Recent recorded matches show mixed form (1 win, 1 loss on 18-Aug-2025), not dominant performance
• • Very limited or no public data on Mac Visser increases uncertainty but also creates potential mispricing