Madalena Matias vs Alice Robbe

Highlights

• • Alice Robbe heavily favored by market (1.04) but career record 10-21 suggests vulnerability
• • Required fair odds for Robbe are ~1.176; current 1.04 offers negative expected value

Pros

• + Robbe is the clear market favorite, implying she is likely the stronger player
• + If our probability is conservative and actual probability is higher, small value could exist — but current market doesn't show it

Cons

• - Current favorite price (1.04) yields a clear negative EV versus our probability estimate
• - Research documents recent losses and inconsistency for Robbe, reducing confidence in near-certain market pricing

Details

We compare the market prices to a conservative estimate of true win probability. The book gives Alice Robbe decimal 1.04 (implied ~96.2%). Robbe's recent documented form (career record 10-21 and multiple recent losses) does not support a near-certain outcome; we estimate her true win probability substantially lower. Using an estimated true probability of 85% for Robbe (reflecting that she is the clear favorite but accounting for documented inconsistency and lack of supporting dominance in the research), the fair decimal would be ~1.176. At the current market price of 1.04 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.85*1.04 - 1 = -0.116), so there is no value to back Robbe at available prices. The long underdog price (Madalena Matias 10.5, implied ~9.52%) is tempting but we lack evidence from the provided research to justify a high enough upset probability to make that price +EV. Therefore we advise no bet.

Key factors

• • Market implies Alice Robbe win probability ~96.2% which is implausibly high given her 10-21 record
• • Recent form shows multiple losses in latest matches, indicating inconsistency
• • No supporting research for Madalena Matias to justify the extreme long price, so upset probability is uncertain