Maddalena Giordano vs Anja Wildgruber

Highlights

• • Giordano brings far more career experience and a better overall win rate
• • Current odds (2.8) exceed our break-even threshold (2.632), producing positive EV

Pros

• + Value price relative to our estimated true probability
• + Experience advantage and broader surface experience in Giordano's profile

Cons

• - Recent-match snippets show both players with losses, adding short-term form uncertainty
• - Giordano is a long-career player — age/fitness concerns could reduce reliability despite historical edge (not detailed in provided data)

Details

We find value on Maddalena Giordano at 2.8. The market heavily favors Anja Wildgruber (implied ~71.7%) despite Wildgruber's short career (31 matches, 10-21 record) and lower career win rate compared with Giordano (1066 matches, 559-507 record). Giordano's long experience across surfaces and higher career win rate suggest her true chance is substantially higher than the market-implied 35.7% for the home player. Both players show recent losses in the limited recent-match snippets, so form is not a clear advantage for Wildgruber; that reduces confidence in the heavy favoritism. Using a conservative estimated true win probability for Giordano of 38.0%, the break-even decimal price is ~2.632 while the available price is 2.8, producing a positive expected value (EV = 0.064 or 6.4% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We used the listed current home price of 2.8 for the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Giordano's much larger sample size and higher career win rate (559-507 over 1066 matches) vs Wildgruber (10-21 over 31 matches)
• • Market strongly favors Wildgruber (1.394) creating a large implied probability gap that appears unsupported by career numbers and available recent-form snippets
• • Both players show recent losses in the provided recent-match snippets, reducing form-based justification for heavy favoritism toward the away player