Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for home (1.22) ~82%; our model ~55%.
• • Required fair price to back home is ~1.818; current quote is far below that.

Pros

• + Clear, conservative read that avoids wagering against an overpriced favorite.
• + Analysis grounded in the supplied matching profiles and recent form.

Cons

• - Information provided is limited and nearly identical for both players, increasing uncertainty.
• - If there are unreported factors (injury, draw advantage, conditions) they could change the assessment.

Details

We estimate Maddison Inglis is not an 82% favorite despite the 1.22 price. Both players' recent records and surfaces are nearly identical (10-21), with no clear form or injury advantage shown in the provided research. The market-implied probability for Inglis at 1.22 is ~82.0%, while our assessed true win probability is ~55%. That gap produces a large negative expected value on the favorite: EV = 0.55 * 1.22 - 1 = -0.329, so the current price is overpriced for the favorite and offers no value. To back a side profitably we'd need a price of at least 1.818 for Inglis (or an equivalent value on the underdog), which is far above available quotes.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided data (10-21).
• • Market has heavily favored the home player at implied ~82% while research does not justify that level.
• • No injury, clear surface advantage, or head-to-head edge appears in the supplied information to justify the market price.