Highlights

• • Away implied probability 74.6%; our estimate 78%
• • Required fair decimal odds 1.282 vs market 1.341 → positive EV

Pros

• + Clear experience advantage and larger match sample for the away players
• + Current market price (> fair odds) yields small positive expected value

Cons

• - No direct doubles H2H or partnership data provided; doubles chemistry is unknown
• - Home player Madeleine Brooks lacks supplied data, adding model uncertainty

Details

We find value on the away side (Emily Appleton / Isabelle Haverlag). The market prices the away team at 1.341 (implied ~74.6%). From the provided player profiles, Appleton and Haverlag have long professional careers and substantially more match experience and positive overall win rates compared with Jessica Failla (Failla's recent record 10-22 and sparse career span). Madeleine Brooks has no profile in the supplied research, increasing uncertainty for the home pairing. Both Appleton and Haverlag show extensive play across surfaces including clay and hard, whereas Failla's results indicate limited success. Given the experience gap and Failla's recent poor results, we estimate the true win probability for the away pairing to be higher than the market-implied 74.6% — approximately 78%. At that probability the fair decimal price is 1.282, which is lower than the available 1.341, producing a positive expected value. We therefore recommend backing the away team at current prices because EV > 0.

Key factors

• • Experience and long career records for Appleton and Haverlag versus limited/highly negative recent record for Failla
• • No supplied profile for Madeleine Brooks increases uncertainty for the home pairing
• • Market-implied probability (74.6%) appears slightly below our estimated true probability (78%), creating value