Highlights

• • Market implies ~73.7% for the away side; we estimate ~78%
• • Positive EV ≈ 0.058 per 1 unit stake at current odds

Pros

• + Strong experience and higher career win totals for the away players
• + Current odds offer a measurable edge vs our probability estimate

Cons

• - Incomplete data on Madeleine Brooks (home partner) creates some uncertainty
• - Recent match-level form for all players shows losses, reducing confidence margin

Details

We see a clear experience and track-record gap: Emily Appleton and Isabelle Haverlag have long pro careers and substantial match volume, while Jessica Failla's recent doubles record is weak (10-22) and Madeleine Brooks lacks provided pro-level data in the research. The market price on the away side (1.356 decimal, implied ~73.7%) looks a bit soft given the qualitative advantage; we estimate the true win probability closer to 78%. Using p=0.78 against the quoted 1.356 yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.78 * 1.356 - 1 ≈ 0.058), so the away side represents value at current prices. Key negatives that temper confidence are Failla's limited success but unknown partner quality (Brooks), and lack of explicit H2H or surface-specific doubles data in the research.

Key factors

• • Away pair has substantially greater career experience and match volume
• • Home pair includes Failla whose recent win-rate and form are poor
• • Market-implied probability (73.7%) is below our estimated true probability (78%)