Highlights

• • Book market implies Hageman ~22.4% but we estimate ~18%
• • Current price produces about -19.5% ROI on our estimate

Pros

• + Hageman has a long career and an above-50% historical win rate
• + Underdog price is large enough to be attractive if signs of improved form emerge

Cons

• - Recent form provided is poor, reducing her realistic upset chances
• - No available profile for van Emst in the research, so uncertainty favors the market favorite

Details

The market prices Sarah van Emst as a heavy favorite (1.182 => implied win probability ~84.6%) and Madelief Hageman as a sizable underdog at 4.47 (implied ~22.4%). We only have Hageman's profile: a long career with an overall win rate of 559/1066 (~52.4%) but recent form appears poor (multiple recent losses in the provided recent-match snippet). With no profile for van Emst, we conservatively estimate Hageman's true chance here at 18% based on her recent downturn versus her career baseline. At p=0.18 the fair decimal odds would need to be >= 1/0.18 = 5.556 to be +EV. The current price of 4.47 yields EV = 0.18*4.47 - 1 = -0.195 (≈ -19.5% ROI), so there is no value backing Hageman at available prices and we therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Career win-rate 559/1066 (~52.4%) indicates baseline competence but includes many levels and years
• • Recent form in the provided snippet shows multiple recent losses, lowering short-term win expectation
• • Market strongly favors the away player (1.182); without her data we must be conservative and that removes value on the underdog