Highlights

• • Market implies very high Brengle probability (89.3%).
• • Research supports favoritism but not an edge above the market price.

Pros

• + Brengle is an experienced player with a long career and play on multiple surfaces.
• + Heavy market favoritism is consistent with a clear mismatch in ability or ranking.

Cons

• - Provided recent-match snippets show losses and do not indicate dominant recent form.
• - No information on the opponent (Guichard) or match conditions, creating uncertainty in any high-confidence call.

Details

The market price (Madison Brengle 1.12, implied 89.3%) is very short. Our assessment, using only the provided data, values Brengle below that level because the research shows a long career with a modest lifetime win-rate and mixed recent results rather than dominant recent form. While Brengle's experience and surface versatility argue she is the clear favorite, the information given does not justify declaring her win probability above 89.3% required to make a +EV play at 1.12. Therefore we do not recommend a bet at current prices. We compared the implied probability to our estimated true probability and found a negative expected value at the quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker implies 89.3% for Brengle (very short price).
• • Available research shows Brengle has long career experience but mixed recent results; not clearly dominant.
• • No usable information on Ahmani Guichard in the provided research, increasing uncertainty.