Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Brengle: 47.6%; our estimate: 62%
• • EV at 2.10 = +0.302 (30.2% ROI on a single unit)

Pros

• + Large experience and match-play advantage in favor of Brengle
• + Stronger historical win rate and versatility across surfaces

Cons

• - Both players show recent losses; short-term form could be misleading
• - Hobgarski's low sample size introduces variance—upsets remain plausible

Details

We find value backing Madison Brengle (home). The market prices Brengle at 2.10 (implied win probability 47.6%), but based on career-level evidence she should be substantially more likely to win: Brengle's long career (559-507 overall) and experience across surfaces gives her an advantage over Katharina Hobgarski, who has a small pro sample (10-21) and limited top-level results. Both players show recent losses, but Hobgarski's overall win rate (≈32%) and brief career sample increase variance and downside risk for her. We estimate Brengle's true win probability at 62.0%, which yields positive expected value against the 2.10 price (EV = 0.62 * 2.10 - 1 = +0.302). Given the sizeable experience gap, surface versatility, and tournament context (ITF SF where experience often matters), the market appears to underprice Brengle, creating value at current widely-available odds.

Key factors

• • Brengle's extensive pro experience and higher career win rate versus Hobgarski's limited sample
• • Brengle's proven ability across multiple surfaces compared with Hobgarski's narrower resume
• • Market implies 47.6% for Brengle while our model estimates ~62%, creating a value gap