Highlights

• • Teresa's documented season win-rate (~31%) implies she is unlikely to be a 96% favorite
• • Madison at 10.0 offers very large theoretical ROI if our conservative estimate holds

Pros

• + Very large edge between estimated fair price (~1.455) and offered 10.0
• + Bet aligns with objective season-level performance data for Teresa

Cons

• - No direct information provided on Madison Rose—high model uncertainty
• - Market may reflect unknown factors (injury, walkover, mismatch) not present in provided research

Details

We find a large pricing disconnect. The market currently prices Teresa Franco Dias as a near-certain winner (away 1.04, implied ~96%), but her career record this season is 10-22 (≈31% win rate) and her recent hard-court results are losses. We have no scouting data on Madison Rose in the provided research, so we conservatively derive Madison's probability as the complement of Teresa's season win rate (≈0.6875). Using that estimate, the fair decimal price for Madison is about 1.455, far below the offered 10.0, so the current 10.0 represents substantial positive expected value. We acknowledge high uncertainty from the lack of direct data on Madison, so the estimate is conservative but still shows strong value at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Teresa Franco Dias season win rate 10-22 (~31.25%)
• • Recent hard-court form shows consecutive losses
• • Market prices Teresa at ~96% which conflicts with her documented results