Highlights

• • Market-implied probability (82.4%) far exceeds our 63% estimate
• • Research shows symmetric career and recent form, offering no clear edge

Pros

• + Brengle is the market favorite and likely the safer match-level pick in raw probability terms
• + Short price means a win is likely, but not profitable at current odds

Cons

• - Price (1.214) implies a probability we cannot justify from the provided data
• - No surface, injury, or head-to-head evidence to support the heavy market edge

Details

We find no value on Madison Brengle at the available price. The market gives Brengle a very short price (1.214, implied ~82.4%) while the research shows both players with near-identical career profiles and recent form that does not clearly favor Brengle. With no visible injury edge, surface advantage, or head-to-head dominance in the provided data, we estimate Brengle's true win probability materially lower than the market-implied 82%. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 63%, the current home price is overpriced by the market and produces a negative expected value, so we do not recommend taking the favorite here.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors Brengle (1.214 -> implied 82.4%)
• • Provided profiles show both players with nearly identical career records and recent losses
• • No injury, surface, or H2H evidence in the research to justify market's large gap