Highlights

• • Mae's career win rate is higher despite being listed as underdog.
• • Billy's grass experience justifies favoritism but appears priced above his overall consistency.

Pros

• + Current decimal price 3.78 is above our min fair price (3.125), creating positive EV.
• + Mae has recent event form at Cassis which supports a higher-than-implied chance.

Cons

• - Surface is grass — Mae lacks recorded grass matches, giving Billy a tactical advantage.
• - Limited direct matchup data and some uncertainty in converting hard/cassiss form to grass performance.

Details

We compare the market price (Mae Malige 3.78 decimal, implied 26.5%) to our independent assessment. Mae's career win rate (31 wins in 61 matches ≈ 50.8%) is marginally better than Billy Harris's (34/76 ≈ 44.7%), and Mae has shown recent wins at the same Cassis event. Billy does have grass experience while Mae's recorded surfaces do not include grass, which is a genuine surface edge for Harris, but Billy's overall win percentage and higher sample of losses indicate inconsistency. Given those trade-offs we estimate Mae's true chance higher than the market-implied 26.5% — we model Mae at 32.0% true probability. At that probability the minimum fair decimal price is 3.125, which is below the offered 3.78, producing positive expected value. Numerical check: EV = 0.32 * 3.78 - 1 = 0.2096 (≈20.96% ROI per 1 unit stake). We therefore recommend backing the home underdog only because current market odds materially exceed our conservative probability estimate, offering value despite the grass-surface disadvantage.

Key factors

• • Mae Malige has a slightly higher career win percentage (31/61 ≈ 50.8%) compared to Billy Harris (34/76 ≈ 44.7%).
• • Match surface is grass; Billy has recorded grass experience while Mae's recorded matches do not include grass (surface edge to Billy).
• • Market heavily favors Billy (implied ~77.7%), likely overpricing the grass edge given Billy's inconsistent overall record.