Highlights

• • Market favours Dan (1.43) but recent form slightly undermines that edge
• • Mae at 2.75 exceeds our required odds (~2.564) to show positive expectation

Pros

• + Positive EV at current bookmaker price (≈+7.25% ROI)
• + Mae's recent results on hard courts reduce the gap versus Dan

Cons

• - Dan's superior overall win-rate and career volume are meaningful and temper confidence
• - Limited and imperfect recent-form data increases uncertainty in the probability estimate

Details

We compare market prices (Mae Malige 2.75, Dan Added 1.43) to our probability estimate based on the provided profiles. Dan Added has a stronger career win rate (57-28, ~67%) versus Mae Malige (31-29, ~51%), which explains the market favouring Dan. However, the recent snippets show Dan arriving with recent losses while Mae has recent wins on hard courts; both players have experience across hard, clay and carpet so surface does not materially skew the matchup. We conservatively estimate Mae's true win probability at 39%, which implies fair odds of ~2.56. The bookmaker price of 2.75 therefore offers value: EV = 0.39 * 2.75 - 1 = +0.0725 (≈ +7.25% ROI). At the short-priced 1.43 for Dan, our estimated probability for Dan (~61%) is below the market-implied ~69.9%, so we avoid backing Dan. We recommend Mae (home) only because the current decimal price (2.75) exceeds our min required decimal odds (≈2.564) and yields positive EV.

Key factors

• • Dan Added has a stronger overall career record, explaining the market favourite status
• • Recent form snippets show Dan with recent losses and Mae with some recent wins on hard courts
• • Both players have matched surface exposure (hard/clay/carpet), lowering surface bias