Mae Malige vs Dan Added
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Dan Added at 1.629 because his higher career win rate and match experience justify a ~64% chance to win, giving a small positive EV.
Highlights
- • Dan Added implied probability 61.4% vs our 64.0% estimate
- • Grass inexperience raises variance but does not erase Dan's edge
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current widely-available odds
- + Clear advantage in career win rate and match sample size
Cons
- - No recorded grass experience for either player increases outcome uncertainty
- - Recent match snippets show mixed recent form for both players
Details
We see Dan Added as the stronger player based on career win rate (57-28 vs Mae Malige 31-29) and greater match volume (85 vs 61), which implies a higher baseline skill level. Neither profile shows grass experience, so we discount the edge slightly for surface unfamiliarity, but Dan's overall form and higher win percentage still favor him. The market price for Dan is 1.629 (implied probability ~61.4%); we estimate his true win probability at 64.0% based on comparative records, recent activity, and lack of direct grass data. At our probability Dan represents positive expected value versus the current decimal price (EV = 0.64 * 1.629 - 1 ≈ 0.043), so we recommend the away side as a value bet.
Key factors
- • Dan Added has a materially better career win rate and more matches played
- • Neither player shows recorded grass experience, increasing uncertainty
- • Book market (1.629) underestimates our calculated probability (0.64), producing positive EV